What will be the lowest reported Antarctic sea ice extent in 2026 as of 16 March 2026?
Closing Mar 16, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Antarctic sea ice extent, a measure of the ocean area in the southern hemisphere that is at least 15% sea ice, reached near historic lows in 2025 (NSIDC). The question will be suspended on 15 March 2026 and the outcome determined using graph data as provided by the National Snow & Ice Data Center's (NSIDC's) "Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 16 March 2026 (Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph, click "Antarctic" on the left side above the graph, NSIDC - About Charctic Data). The question will close as of the date of the lowest reported Antarctic sea ice extent (the most recent if there is a tie for the lowest extent). Other site data are immaterial. As of the launch of this question, the lowest daily reported Antarctic sea ice extent in 2025 was 1.998 million sq. km on 1 March.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 1.25 million sq. km | 4.30% | +0.20% | +0.20% | +0.30% |
| At least 1.25 million sq. km, but less than 1.50 million sq. km | 2.40% | +0.30% | +0.30% | -1.50% |
| At least 1.50 million sq. km, but less than 1.75 million sq. km | 13.20% | +0.40% | +1.40% | +5.40% |
| At least 1.75 million sq. km, but less than 2.00 million sq. km | 30.90% | +0.90% | -0.80% | +1.90% |
| At least 2.00 million sq. km, but less than 2.25 million sq. km | 25.20% | -1.60% | -3.10% | -5.50% |
| At least 2.25 million sq. km, but less than 2.50 million sq. km | 13.90% | -0.30% | +0.70% | +1.00% |
| At least 2.50 million sq. km, but less than 2.75 million sq. km | 6.60% | -0.40% | +0.60% | -1.00% |
| At least 2.75 million sq. km, but less than 3.00 million sq. km | 2.10% | -0.20% | 0% | -1.40% |
| At least 3.00 million sq. km, but less than 3.25 million sq. km | 0.90% | +0.50% | +0.50% | +0.30% |
| 3.25 million sq. km or more | 0.50% | +0.20% | +0.20% | +0.50% |