Who will win the 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Started Sep 26, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 14, 2025 08:01AM UTC

The election campaign in Chile to replace President Gabriel Boric is in full swing (Buenos Aires Herald). The first round is scheduled for 16 November 2025 with a runoff scheduled for 14 December 2025, if needed (Constitution of Chile, see Article 26). If a candidate named in the answer options ceases to be a candidate, that person's name will be replaced by the person chosen to replace that candidate under the laws of Chile if such a replacement is named. The name of the person printed on the ballot who ultimately wins will be considered the winner of the election, even if that named candidate is replaced after the ballots for the round that ultimately decides the winner are printed (e.g., Mel Carnahan's "victory" in the 2000 Missouri Senate race [CNN]).

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The question closed "José Antonio Kast" with a closing date of 14 December 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Jeannette Jara 8%
José Antonio Kast 92%
Evelyn Matthei 0%
Someone else 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 30
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 134
Number of Forecasts 74
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 361
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.127976
2.
-0.093387
3.
-0.089415
4.
-0.064281
5.
-0.060223

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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