The Economist asks:

In Case v. Montana, will the Supreme Court rule that police violated Petitioner William Case's Fourth Amendment rights by entering his home without probable cause that an emergency was occurring?

Started Oct 02, 2025 02:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 14, 2026 03:05PM UTC

Montana police officers entered William Case's home after an ex-girlfriend called the police to tell them that he was threatening suicide, which resulted in Case being shot by police (Oyez). After being charged with assault against a peace officer, Case sought to have evidence collected while in his house to be suppressed, arguing that the officers' warrantless entry of his home violated the Fourth Amendment, and the US Supreme Court ultimately agreed to hear the case (Montana Supreme Court Decision 6 August 2024, SCOTUSblog, ABA Journal). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2025 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue or issues of law, the question will close as "No." If the Court ultimately finds that an exception to the general rule requiring a warrant to enter a home applies to the officers' actions and they were not required to have probable cause, the question will close "No."

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 14 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 32%
No 68%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 30
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 134
Number of Forecasts 56
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 361
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.059484
3.
-0.059484
4.
-0.059484
5.
-0.058714

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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