The Economist asks:
In Case v. Montana, will the Supreme Court rule that police violated Petitioner William Case's Fourth Amendment rights by entering his home without probable cause that an emergency was occurring?
Closing Jul 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Montana police officers entered William Case's home after an ex-girlfriend called the police to tell them that he was threatening suicide, which resulted in Case being shot by police (Oyez). After being charged with assault against a peace officer, Case sought to have evidence collected while in his house to be suppressed, arguing that the officers' warrantless entry of his home violated the Fourth Amendment, and the US Supreme Court ultimately agreed to hear the case (Montana Supreme Court Decision 6 August 2024, SCOTUSblog, ABA Journal). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2025 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue or issues of law, the question will close as "No." If the Court ultimately finds that an exception to the general rule requiring a warrant to enter a home applies to the officers' actions and they were not required to have probable cause, the question will close "No."
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.