The University Forecasting Challenge asks:
Which author will win the 2025 Booker Prize?
Closed Nov 10, 2025 08:01AM UTC
The prestigious Booker Prize "is the leading literary award in the English speaking world, and has brought recognition, reward and readership to outstanding fiction for over five decades" (Booker Prize - About). On 23 September 2025, the "shortlist" of 6 nominees was announced, with the winner scheduled to be announced in London on 10 November 2025 (NPR, Booker Prize 2025). In the event of a tie, the answer option listed first (top to bottom) among the tied nominees will be considered the winner.
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The question closed "David Szalay, "Flesh"" with a closing date of 10 November 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Susan Choi, "Flashlight" | 11% | |
| Kiran Desai, "The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny" | 47% | |
| Katie Kitamura, "Audition" | 4% | |
| Ben Markovits, "The Rest of Our Lives" | 3% | |
| Andrew Miller, "The Land in Winter" | 32% | |
| David Szalay, "Flesh" | 3% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 33 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 113 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 65 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 261 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
