What percentage of the vote will the Democratic Party candidate win in the 2025 Virginia attorney general election?

Started Oct 06, 2025 03:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 04, 2025 08:01AM UTC

The race for Virginia attorney general was rocked by reports that the Democratic candidate, Jay Jones, had sent text messages to a Virginia legislator in 2022 in which he suggested that a Republican official be shot and his children killed (AP, Politico). It was also revealed that Jones had previously been convicted of reckless driving and reportedly claimed work at his own political action committee as community service (CBS 12).

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The question closed "At least 50.0%, but less than 55.0%" with a closing date of 4 November 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 30.0% 0%
At least 30.0%, but less than 35.0% 0%
At least 35.0%, but less than 40.0% 5%
At least 40.0%, but less than 45.0% 27%
At least 45.0%, but less than 50.0% 54%
At least 50.0%, but less than 55.0% 14%
55.0% or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 29
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 113
Number of Forecasts 83
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 261
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.218605
3.
-0.217858
4.
-0.188605
5.
-0.084842

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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