When will the NASDAQ 100 Index close down 30% or more from its all-time closing high?

Started Oct 06, 2025 03:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2026 08:01AM UTC

The NASDAQ 100 Index includes the one hundred stocks traded on the tech-heavy NASDAQ with the highest market capitalization (Investopedia - NASDAQ 100). As technology stocks soar, pushed heavily by investments in artificial intelligence development, market observers are raising concerns over a "bubble" (Yahoo [Bloomberg], Yahoo [Fortune], Investopedia - Bubble). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance). The threshold will be reached once the closing value of the NASDAQ 100 is lower by 30% or more from its all-time closing high as of that date (the all-time closing high may be reached after the launch of this question).

This question is a companion with #4664 (20% down) and #4666 (40% down).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Before 5 March 2026 8.80% 0% -0.10% +3.90%
Between 5 March 2026 and 2 August 2026 4.10% 0% +0.10% -7.40%
Between 3 August 2026 and 31 December 2026 4.00% 0% 0% -9.00%
Not before 1 January 2027 83.10% 0% 0% +12.50%

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