What percentage of the vote will the New York City (NYC) Democratic mayoral nominee win in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Started
Oct 13, 2025 08:00AM UTC
Closed Nov 04, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closed Nov 04, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Zohran Mamdani, who beat out former NY Governor Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic Party primary in June 2025, was leading most polls as current Mayor Eric Adams announced on 28 September 2025 that he was ending his campaign for reelection (CNN, CNBC).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "50% or more" with a closing date of 4 November 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 40%, and the Democratic candidate will win | 4% | |
| Less than 40%, and the Democratic candidate will lose | 3% | |
| At least 40%, but less than 45%, and the Democratic candidate will win | 28% | |
| At least 40%, but less than 45%, and the Democratic candidate will lose | 2% | |
| At least 45%, but less than 50%, and the Democratic candidate will win | 38% | |
| At least 45%, but less than 50%, and the Democratic candidate will lose | 1% | |
| 50% or more | 24% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 123 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 113 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 277 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 261 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
