On 19 October 2025, a group of thieves used a basket lift to break into the Louvre Museum and steal eight "priceless" pieces of jewelry from the 19th century (AP, BBC, CBS News, French Ministry of Culture [in French]). Items that were dropped and/or recovered in the immediate aftermath of the thefts are immaterial (e.g., a jewel found on the street that the thieves apparently lost while fleeing by itself will not count), and the recovery of part of any of the items will count once confirmed to have been part of one of the stolen objects. Recovery by the legal authorities of any country will count once announced or acknowledged by the French.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.