The Economist asks:
In the 2026 North Carolina US Senate election race, will the Democratic nominee be leading the Republican nominee in polling on 4 September 2026, according to RealClearPolitics?
Closing Sep 04, 2026 07:01AM UTC
Control of the US Senate in the 2026 midterm elections will turn, in part, on the outcome of the Senate race in North Carolina, for which incumbent Thom Tillis is not running for reelection (NBC News, Politico, North Carolina Public Radio). The question will be suspended on 3 September 2026 and the outcome determined using RealClearPolitics' RCP Average once data for 4 September 2026 are first available (RealClearPolitics). We expect the data to begin to be shown in chart form as we approach election day, and chart data will be used for resolution.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| No, and will be behind the Republican nominee by more than 5.0% | 7.00% | -1.00% | 0% |
| No, and will be behind the Republican nominee by between 0.0% and 5.0%, inclusive | 21.00% | -1.00% | -1.00% |
| Yes, and will be ahead of the Republican nominee by more than 0.0%, but less than 5.0% | 50.00% | -1.00% | +1.00% |
| Yes, and will be ahead of the Republican nominee by 5.0% or more | 22.00% | +3.00% | 0% |