The Economist asks:

Will Rocket Lab successfully launch its Neutron rocket before 1 August 2026?

Started Nov 21, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC

On 10 November 2025, Rocket Lab announced that its "current plan for Neutron has the rocket arriving at Launch Complex 3 in Q1, 2026, with first launch thereafter pending successful completion of the vehicle's qualification testing and acceptance program" (Economist, Rocket Lab - Neutron, Rocket Lab - Q3 2025 Investor Update, Space News). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Rocket Lab). The question will close early upon Rocket Lab officially announcing that the launch will not take place before 1 August 2026.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 38.62% -0.22% +0.92% +8.64%
No 61.38% +0.22% -0.92% -8.64%

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