The Economist asks:

In the current conflict in Sudan, when will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) sign or announce a ceasefire with an intended indefinite duration or an intended duration of at least 28 days?

Started Nov 21, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2026 07:01AM UTC

Fighting has continued between the SAF and RSF since 15 April 2023, and efforts to find a peace agreement continue (EconomistNBC News, Sudan Tribune). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both the SAF and RSF and include the whole of Sudan to count. The date a ceasefire will take effect is immaterial. The intended duration of a ceasefire will be determined using credible, open-source reporting, and a qualifying intended duration must be agreed to at its inception (e.g., a 15-day ceasefire that is extended for another 15 days would not count), and a contingent extension (e.g., renewable every two weeks if conditions are met) will not count. Whether the ceasefire holds for its intended duration is immaterial. A peace deal that includes a cessation of all hostilities (i.e., a ceasefire, armistice) within the parameters laid out in the question description will count. For the purposes of this question, the inclusion of Abyei and/or Kafia Kingi is immaterial (Al Jazeera, Rift Valley Institute).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Before 5 March 2026 11.00% -2.28% -1.08%
Between 5 March 2026 and 17 June 2026 20.00% +1.81% +7.12%
Between 18 June 2026 and 30 September 2026 16.00% +0.31% +1.58%
Not before 1 October 2026 53.00% +0.16% -7.63%

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