What will be the change in the value of the S&P 500 Index in 2026?
Starts
Dec 12, 2025 06:00PM UTC
(1 hour from now)
Closing Dec 31, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Closing Dec 31, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in the world (Investopedia - S&P 500). The question will be suspended on 30 December 2026 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database by dividing the closing value for 31 December 2026 by the closing value for 31 December 2025 and subtracting one (FRED).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
This question is not yet active.
| Answers |
|---|
| Lower than -28.0% |
| At least -28.0%, but lower than -24.0% |
| At least -24.0%, but lower than -20.0% |
| At least -20.0%, but lower than -16.0% |
| At least -16.0%, but lower than -12.0% |
| At least -12.0%, but lower than -8.0% |
| At least -8.0%, but lower than -4.0% |
| At least -4.0%, but lower than 0.0% |
| At least 0.0%, but lower than 4.0% |
| At least 4.0%, but lower than 8.0% |
| At least 8.0%, but lower than 12.0% |
| At least 12.0%, but lower than 16.0% |
| At least 16.0%, but lower than 20.0% |
| At least 20.0%, but lower than 24.0% |
| At least 24.0%, but lower than 28.0% |
| 28.0% or higher |