The Economist asks:

Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win the most seats in Bangladesh's 2026 parliamentary election?

Started Jan 02, 2026 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 26, 2026 07:01AM UTC

Bangladesh is scheduled to hold its first elections since the July Revolution of 2024 (Economist, Deutsche Welle, The Hindu, India News Network). The next national election for the Jatiya Sangsad (parliament) is scheduled for 12 February 2026 (Al Jazeera). There are a total of 350 seats in the Jatiya Sangsad, though only 300 are directly elected, with the remaining 50 reserved for women to be chosen by the elected members (Jatiya Sangsad). The question is only concerned with the 300 directly elected members. If there is ambiguity in the result, the outcome will be determined based on the results as certified by the Bangladesh Election Commission. A "majority" is more than 50% of seats. A "plurality" is more seats than any other party, but less than a majority.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes, a majority 24.20% -0.80%
Yes, a plurality 60.00% +35.00%
No 13.20% -11.80%
Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh will not be completed before 26 June 2026 2.60% -22.40%

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