The Economist asks:

Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win the most seats in Bangladesh's 2026 parliamentary election?

Started Jan 02, 2026 05:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 12, 2026 10:30AM UTC

Bangladesh is scheduled to hold its first elections since the July Revolution of 2024 (Economist, Deutsche Welle, The Hindu, India News Network). The next national election for the Jatiya Sangsad (parliament) is scheduled for 12 February 2026 (Al Jazeera). There are a total of 350 seats in the Jatiya Sangsad, though only 300 are directly elected, with the remaining 50 reserved for women to be chosen by the elected members (Jatiya Sangsad). The question is only concerned with the 300 directly elected members. If there is ambiguity in the result, the outcome will be determined based on the results as certified by the Bangladesh Election Commission. A "majority" is more than 50% of seats. A "plurality" is more seats than any other party, but less than a majority.

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NOTE 15 January 2026: The question is concerned with how the BNP seat total will compare to other parties. Seat totals for political coalitions (e.g., the "Like-minded 11 Parties") are immaterial.


The question closed "Yes, a majority" with a closing date of 12 February 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, a majority 61%
Yes, a plurality 28%
No 9%
Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh will not be completed before 26 June 2026 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 107
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 108
Number of Forecasts 283
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 251
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.353902
3.
-0.308137
4.
-0.307951
5.
-0.280888

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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