When will the FARC register a new political party?

Started Jun 13, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 09, 2017 05:00PM UTC

The historic Colombia-FARC peace agreement stipulated that the FARC could register as a political party once disarmament was complete (United Press International, Colombia Reports 1/10/2017 , Colombia Reports 6/8/2017 , Reuters). The FARC has said it is committed to forming a political party, a process which could involve Voices of Peace and Reconciliation or the establishment of a new organization (Telesur, Fox News). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Recommended Questions: When will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela? Posted 5 October 2017: Good Judgment has been asked if the Alternative Revolutionary Force for the Common People (FARC) party convention in September closes this question. While this is an important part of the process of forming a party, Good Judgment has not seen evidence to suggest they have registered. A recently released message by the FARC indicated in mid-September the paperwork for formal registration was still being worked on and while most coverage points to registration happening in the near future, none of them confirm registration.
The FARC registered as a new political party on 9 October 2017. (Infobae, Global Media Federation Company). This question closed as “Between 1 October and 31 December 2017, inclusive,” with an end date of 9 October 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 30 September 2017 0%
Between 1 October and 31 December 2017, inclusive 84%
Not before 1 January 2018 16%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 93
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 657
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.515034
2.
-0.420108
3.
-0.401011
4.
-0.369171
5.
-0.369171

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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