Will Jacob Zuma cease to be president of South Africa before 1 July 2018?

Started Jun 13, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 14, 2018 06:00PM UTC

A controversial cabinet reshuffling brings new protests for the South African President to step down (BBC, Al Jazeera, Reuters). In the event that Zuma reportedly disappears or flees the capital, a three-week waiting period will be observed, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Zuma returns in the interim, the question will remain open. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Recommended Questions: When will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela? Before 1 October 2018, will the UN Security Council pass a resolution imposing an arms embargo on South Sudan? This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 14 February 2018 (NY Times). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 90.00%
No 10.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 206
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 1064
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.137894
2.
-1.137894
3.
-1.033098
4.
-0.932203
5.
-0.917976

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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