Will the Kurdistan Regional Government hold a popular vote on independence before 1 January 2018?

Started Jun 20, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 25, 2017 05:00PM UTC

The Kurdistan Regional Government has scheduled a referendum for September of 2017, despite opposition by Iraq, Turkey, and others (Bloomberg, Al-Monitor, Reuters, US News). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
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The Kurdistan Regional Government held a popular vote (BBC). This question was closed as “a) Yes, and a majority will vote in favor of independence” with an end date of 25 September 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and a majority will vote in favor of independence 99%
Yes, but a majority will vote against independence 0%
No 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 129
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 520
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.061
2.
-0.061
3.
-0.061
4.
-0.061
5.
-0.061

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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