The CFA Society Los Angeles asks
When will Fitch, Moody's, or S&P, next downgrade China's long term local or foreign currency issuer ratings?
Started
Jul 14, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 21, 2017 06:59AM UTC
Closed Sep 21, 2017 06:59AM UTC
Challenges
S&P Global Ratings downgraded China's long-term sovereign credit rating by one notch on to A+ from AA-. This question closed as "a) Before 1 January 2018."
Moody’s has downgraded China’s credit rating for the first time since 1989 citing lower growth rates and likely increases in debt (Moody's, CNBC, Market Business News).
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 1 January 2018 | 5% | |
| Between 1 January 2018 and 30 June 2018, inclusive | 16% | |
| Between 1 July 2018 and 31 December 2018, inclusive | 18% | |
| Not before 1 January 2019 | 61% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 87 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 209 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
