Will al-Shabaab attack a US diplomatic facility in Africa before 1 July 2018?

Started Jul 25, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

Al-Shabaab has conducted attacks in Somalia and Kenya (BBC, ABC News, The Guardian). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 July 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.00%
No 98.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 300
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1075
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.02
2.
-0.02
4.
-0.02
5.
-0.02

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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