When will it be announced that the Kaesong Industrial Complex is reopening?

Started Aug 01, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 31, 2018 06:59AM UTC

The Kaesong Industrial Complex, the hallmark of peaceful engagement between North Korea and South Korea during the previous sunshine period, was closed in February 2016 after North Korea's fourth nuclear test (BBC, The Guardian). Moon Jae-In, South Korea's new President promised to seek rapprochement with North Korea, including by re-opening Kaesong (The Diplomat, The Korea Herald). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "Not before 1 August 2018" with an end date of 1 August 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Question clarification
Issued on 10/17/17 02:59pm
As referenced in the "More Info" Section, the Kaesong Industrial Complex is a suspended joint economic development project between North Korea and South Korea. An announcement of it being unilaterally reopened by either side will not suffice.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 November 2017 0%
Between 1 November 2017 and 31 January 2018, inclusive 0%
Between 1 February 2018 and 30 April 2018, inclusive 0%
Between 1 May 2018 and 31 July 2018, inclusive 2%
Not before 1 August 2018 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 492
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1690
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.018
2.
-0.018
3.
-0.018
5.
-0.018

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username