Before 1 January 2018, will the Catalan government hold a public vote on independence?

Started Aug 08, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2017 05:00PM UTC

Despite Spain's objections, the Catalan government has declared it will hold a referendum later this year (The Guardian, NY Times, Reuters). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
The Catalan Government held a public vote on 1 October 2017, and a majority voted in favor of independence. (Catalan Government, CNN, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Catalan Government). This question closed as "a) Yes, and a majority will vote in favor of independence," with an end date of 1 October 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Question clarification
Issued on 08/28/17 05:16pm
A repeat of the 2014 vote would count (BBC)
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and a majority will vote in favor of independence 58%
Yes, and a majority will vote against independence 1%
No 41%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 185
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 653
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.562
2.
-0.516
4.
-0.476
5.
-0.465

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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