Who will win the special election for the Washington State Senate's 45th District?

Started Aug 11, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 08, 2017 07:59AM UTC

A special election for the Washington State Senate's 45th district is attracting national attention as the next electoral flashpoint between Democrats and Republicans. If Democrats win, they would gain total control of Washington's state government, making it the party's seventh state government trifecta in the country. (Politico, The Seattle Times) Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Manka Dhingra (Democrat) won Washington's special election by a margin greater than 5%. This question closed as "a) Manka Dhingra (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5%" with an end date of 8 November 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Manka Dhingra (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5% 81%
Manka Dhingra (Democrat) by a margin of 5% or less 17%
Jinyoung Lee Englund (Republican) by a margin of 5% or less 2%
Jinyoung Lee Englund (Republican) by a margin greater than 5% 0%
None of the above 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 64
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 183
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.449
2.
-0.388
3.
-0.344
4.
-0.31
5.
-0.304

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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