HFC asks

Will the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Honduras (HND) that starts between 1 September 2017 and 30 September 2017?

Started Aug 23, 2017 08:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2017 03:59AM UTC

The question will resolve as "yes" if the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset records any event with a start date (Start Day, Start Month, Start Year) in the period of interest, inclusive, for which 'Event Location: Country' is the country of interest, and 'Perpetrators: Perp State Role' is: Multiple Perpetrators (Non-State); Non-State, Internal, No State Sanction; Transnational, Non-State; or Unknown/Unclear/Other. Question will be suspended on the last day of the period of interest and resolved when the data is released, typically in the middle of the next month via the .zip file which begins with January 2016. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.50%
No 97.50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 94
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 229
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.0068
2.
-0.0068
3.
-0.006574
4.
-0.006311
5.
-0.006179

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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