HFC asks
Will the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Honduras (HND) that starts between 1 September 2017 and 30 September 2017?
Started
Aug 23, 2017 08:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2017 03:59AM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2017 03:59AM UTC
Challenges
The question will resolve as "yes" if the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset records any event with a start date (Start Day, Start Month, Start Year) in the period of interest, inclusive, for which 'Event Location: Country' is the country of interest, and 'Perpetrators: Perp State Role' is: Multiple Perpetrators (Non-State); Non-State, Internal, No State Sanction; Transnational, Non-State; or Unknown/Unclear/Other. Question will be suspended on the last day of the period of interest and resolved when the data is released, typically in the middle of the next month via the .zip file which begins with January 2016.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.50% | |
| No | 97.50% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 94 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 229 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |