HFC asks

Will ACLED record any riot/protest events in Senegal during September 2017?

Started Aug 23, 2017 08:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 09, 2017 06:59AM UTC

This question closed as "a) yes" with an end date of 9 September 2017. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data page (ACLED). The question will resolve as "yes" if ACLED records any event for which: 'COUNTRYÍ is the country of interest; 'EVENT_DATE' falls in the period of interest; and 'EVENT TYPEÍ is: Riots/Protests. The question will be suspended on the last day of the period of interest and resolved when the relevant data is first released. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 98.00%
No 2.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 81
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 154
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.0643
2.
-0.004775
3.
-0.004775
4.
-0.004775
5.
-0.004775

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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