Open: What questions are important for assessing the impact of the nuclear deal on Iran's future in the region and world?

Started Oct 09, 2015 09:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 27, 2016 04:40PM UTC

Adversarial Collaboration Participants: this is open ended thread for you to suggest questions. It will not be scored. Please use the rationale box to state your question, and please indicate how you view the Iran nuclear deal in the forecast box, so that we know which camp you’re from. We are striving to includes questions from both camps in our forecasting challenge. For additional input in the process, you can include your initial probability estimate with your suggested question and a reason why you think your question is important for evaluating Iran's future. As part of Tetlock's adversarial collaboration experiment (NY Times), we are looking for questions that generate testable predictions about the future of the deal and its impacts on Iran, the US, the Middle East, and the world. Let's see how participating in the forecasting process can improve policy debates. Remember good questions are relevant, falsifiable, and have a realistic time horizon (Superforecasting).
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Possible Answer Final Crowd Forecast
Remember to state your question first. Then, how optimistic are you about the Iran deal? (100% = optimistic; 0% = pessimistic) 60.00%
No 40.00%
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