HFC asks
How many battle deaths will ACLED record in Kenya in September 2017?
Started
Sep 06, 2017 04:30PM UTC
Closed Sep 30, 2017 06:59AM UTC
Closed Sep 30, 2017 06:59AM UTC
Challenges
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data page. The count of battle deaths for the period of interest is obtained by summing the 'FATALITIES' column for events in which the 'COUNTRY' is the country of interest; 'EVENT_TYPE' is Battle-Government regains territory, Battle-No change of territory, or Battle-Non-state actor overtakes territory; and 'EVENT_DATE' falls in the period of interest. Question will be resolved when the relevant data is first released.
10 battle deaths were recorded by ACLED in Kenya for September 2017. This question closed as "between 6 and 15, inclusive," with an end date of 30 September 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
10 battle deaths were recorded by ACLED in Kenya for September 2017. This question closed as "between 6 and 15, inclusive," with an end date of 30 September 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 6 | 95% | |
| Between 6 and 15, inclusive | 5% | |
| More than 15 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 90 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 182 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
