Will Uhuru Kenyatta win Kenya's presidential election rerun?

Started Sep 19, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 31, 2017 06:59AM UTC

Uhuru Kenyatta was declared the winner of Kenya's August presidential elections, however, Kenyatta's opponent Raila Odinga challenged the results and the Supreme Court declared them invalid (Washington Post). A rerun election is planned for October 2017. Kenya's constitution allows petitioners to challenge the results of an election at the Supreme Court seven days after the date of the declaration of the results of the presidential election. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Uhuru Kenyatta won the election rerun and the result will be challenged in the Supreme Court. This question closed as “a) Yes and the result will be challenged in the Supreme Court,” with an end date of 6 November 2017. (Bloomberg, Reuters) See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and the result will be challenged in the Supreme Court 73%
Yes, and the result will NOT be challenged in the Supreme Court 27%
No, and the result will be challenged in the Supreme Court 0%
No, and the result will NOT be challenged in the Supreme Court. 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 98
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 220
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.805
2.
-0.753
4.
-0.71
5.
-0.697

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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