HFC asks

Will ACLED record any civilian fatalities in Angola in October 2017?

Started Sep 20, 2017 04:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2017 03:59AM UTC

The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data page (ACLED). The question will resolve as "yes" if ACLED records any event for which: 'COUNTRY' is the country of interest; 'EVENT_DATE' falls in the period of interest; and 'EVENT_TYPE' is Violence against civilians or Remote violence; and 'FATALITIES' is greater than or equal to 1. Question will be resolved when the relevant data is first released.
Resolution Notes

https://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 94
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 287
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.188339
2.
-0.187871
3.
-0.185837
4.
-0.170417
5.
-0.170417

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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