HFC asks
How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide in October 2017?
Started
Oct 04, 2017 04:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 31, 2017 06:59AM UTC
Closed Oct 31, 2017 06:59AM UTC
Challenges
Tags
This question will be resolved using the United States Geological Survey (USGS)’s Earthquake Catalog. The relevant data can be found by setting the Magnitude to a Custom Minimum equal to the magnitude of interest; setting a Custom Date & Time of 'Start' to the first day of the month of interest and setting 'End' day to the last day of the month of interest, leave UTC times to default settings (00:00:00 & 23:59:59). Set Geographic Region to World, click Search beneath Output Options; note the number of earthquakes shown in the top left Search Results window.
Resolution Notes
Value: 113 (as of 8-Nov 3:43PM)
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 103 | 97% | |
| Between 103 and 142, inclusive | 3% | |
| More than 142 but less than 176 | 0% | |
| Between 176 and 214, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 214 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 141 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 694 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
