HFC asks

Will ACLED record any riot/protest events in Sierra Leone between 15 October 2017 and 31 October 2017? 

Started Oct 11, 2017 04:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 24, 2017 03:59AM UTC

The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data page (ACLED). The question will resolve as "yes" if ACLED records any event for which: 'COUNTRY' is the country of interest; 'EVENT_DATE' falls in the period of interest; and 'EVENT_TYPE' is Riots/Protests. Question will be resolved when the relevant data is first released. If a qualifying event is recorded, the question will be closed retroactively with the date of the first event as the end date of the question. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Resolution Notes

24 October 2017 - yes
https://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 12.50%
No 87.50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 53
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 133
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.559567
2.
-1.537383
3.
-1.068108
4.
-0.792067
5.
-0.778108

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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