HFC asks
How many battle deaths will ACLED record in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in October 2017?
Started
Oct 11, 2017 04:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2017 03:59AM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2017 03:59AM UTC
Challenges
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data page (ACLED). The count of battle deaths for the period of interest is obtained by summing the 'FATALITIES’ column for events in which the 'COUNTRY’ is the country of interest; 'EVENT_TYPE’ is Battle-Government regains territory, Battle-No change of territory, or Battle-Non-state actor overtakes territory; and 'EVENT_DATE' falls in the period of interest. Question will be resolved when the relevant data is first released.
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Resolution Notes
Value: 55
https://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Less than 40 | 0% | |
Between 40 and 100, inclusive | 99% | |
More than 100 | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 66 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 197 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |