HFC asks

How many battle deaths will ACLED record in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in October 2017?

Started Oct 11, 2017 04:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2017 03:59AM UTC

The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data page (ACLED). The count of battle deaths for the period of interest is obtained by summing the 'FATALITIES’ column for events in which the 'COUNTRY’ is the country of interest; 'EVENT_TYPE’ is Battle-Government regains territory, Battle-No change of territory, or Battle-Non-state actor overtakes territory; and 'EVENT_DATE' falls in the period of interest. Question will be resolved when the relevant data is first released.  Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Resolution Notes

Value: 55
https://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 40 0%
Between 40 and 100, inclusive 99%
More than 100 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 66
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 197
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.181
2.
-0.164
3.
-0.164
4.
-0.156
5.
-0.138

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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