In the week following Chile's presidential election, will the end of day closing for the Santiago Stock Exchange drop below 5,000?
Started
Oct 10, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 23, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 23, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Challenges
Outcome will be determined by Bloomberg. The Chilean presidential election is scheduled for 19 November 2017, with a run-off scheduled for 17 December 2017 if no candidate wins a majority of the votes in the first round. The week following the election is defined as the five trading days after the election takes place. If the first round determines the election, the relevant trading days are 20-24 November, inclusive. If the second round takes place, the relevant trading days are 18-22 December, inclusive. Markets have responded positively to Sebastian Pinera's presidential candidacy and his pro-growth platform (Reuters, Reuters, Reuters).
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The Santiago Stock Exchange did not drop below 5000 in the week following the election run-off. This question closed as "c) No" with an end date of 23 December 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
The Santiago Stock Exchange did not drop below 5000 in the week following the election run-off. This question closed as "c) No" with an end date of 23 December 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Question clarification
Issued on 12/07/17 09:35pm
If the Santiago Stock Exchange closes below 5,000 on any of the relevant trading days (18-22 December, inclusive) this question will resolve as "yes," regardless of its value prior to that period.
If the Santiago Stock Exchange closes below 5,000 on any of the relevant trading days (18-22 December, inclusive) this question will resolve as "yes," regardless of its value prior to that period.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes, if Sebastian Pinera wins Chile's presidential election | 0% | |
Yes, if Sebastian Pinera does NOT win Chile's presidential election | 0% | |
No | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 71 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 229 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |