HFC asks

How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party win in the upcoming election for Japan's House of Representatives?

Started Oct 18, 2017 04:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 21, 2017 05:00PM UTC

On September 28, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dissolved the Japanese House of Representatives, paving the way for snap elections to be held on October 22 (Nikkei; Bloomberg). Seats won by any current or potential coalition partners, including Komeito, are immaterial to the resolution of this question.
The Liberal Democratic Party won 284 seats in the election for Japan's House of Representatives (NHK). This question closed as "c) 276-285," with an end date of 21 October 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 232 0%
232 - 275 0%
276 - 285 17%
286 - 310 82%
More than 310 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 36
Average for questions older than 6 months: 156
Number of Forecasts 47
Average for questions older than 6 months: 464
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.222333
2.
-0.176633
3.
-0.149
4.
-0.1165
5.
-0.1015

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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