The CFA Society Los Angeles asks

Between 24 October 2017 and 1 February 2018, will Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, or Saudi Arabia have their long-term issuer rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, or Fitch?

Started Oct 24, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 10, 2017 06:00PM UTC

Recent macroeconomic developments have raised concerns regarding the debt profile of several GCC countries (Reuters, Reuters, Reuters, Gulf News, Bloomberg). Long-term foreign currency and/or local currency issuer ratings will count. Revisions to outlook will not count. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
S&P downgraded Oman's credit rating. This question closed as "a) Yes," with and end date of 10 November 2017. (Bloomberg, The National) See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 28.00%
No 72.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 43
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 119
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.812
2.
-0.736
3.
-0.682
4.
-0.682
5.
-0.649

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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