Before 1 October 2018, will Kim Jong-un cease to be supreme leader of North Korea?

Started Nov 07, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

Observers of North Korean politics have speculated about various ways in which Kim's tenure might end abruptly, including military coup (The Daily Beast), assassination (The Telegraph), foreign intervention (The Week), or state collapse (The Brookings Institution). In the event that Kim reportedly disappears or flees the capital, Good Judgment will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Kim returns in the interim, the question will remain open. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 October 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 702
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 1539
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002
2.
-0.002
3.
-0.002
4.
-0.002
5.
-0.002

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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