Before 1 October 2018, will Kim Jong-un cease to be supreme leader of North Korea?
Started
Nov 07, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC
Challenges
Observers of North Korean politics have speculated about various ways in which Kim's tenure might end abruptly, including military coup (The Daily Beast), assassination (The Telegraph), foreign intervention (The Week), or state collapse (The Brookings Institution). In the event that Kim reportedly disappears or flees the capital, Good Judgment will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Kim returns in the interim, the question will remain open.
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This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 October 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 October 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | |
No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 702 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 1539 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |