Will a Republican win the special election for Alabama's U.S. Senate seat?

Started Nov 10, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 13, 2017 07:59AM UTC

The special election for Alabama's U.S. Senate seat vacated by now-Attorney General Jeff Sessions is scheduled for 12 December 2017 (The Washington Examiner, CBS News, The Washington Post, Politico). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 49.50%
No 50.50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 203
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 609
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.83
2.
-0.805
3.
-0.797
5.
-0.749

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username