Question 8 of 11 in The World in 2018See all questions
Started Nov 21, 2017 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing May 20, 2018 06:59AM UTC

The Economist asks

How many seats in the Chamber of Deputies will the Five Star Movement and any pre-election coalition partners win in the next Italian general election?

Italy is legally required to hold a general election in 2018. The populist Five Star Movement finished third in the 2013 general election and has seen strong support in recent polling (Reuters, CNBC, Quarts, Stratfor). The Five Star Movement has so far refused alliances with other parties, but the new electoral law incentivizes broad pre-election coalitions (Politico).

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Name Probability
Less than 50 0%
Between 50 and 87, inclusive 19%
Between 88 and 200, inclusive 72%
Between 201 and 340, inclusive 8%
More than 340 0%

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