Will "implementation day" for the Iranian nuclear deal occur before Iran's legislative elections?

Started Nov 03, 2015 08:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 16, 2016 08:00PM UTC

Elections for the Islamic Consultative Assembly and Assembly of Experts are scheduled for 26 February 2016. Although moderates in Iran hope to expedite implementation of the agreement in order to secure sanction relief before the election, the US has estimated that implementation may take as long as six months (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-mechanism-behind-the-iran-nuclear-deal-goes-into-motion/2015/10/18/b69d0fba-8d4d-404a-ba40-ff5930b54908_story.html , http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/18/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-deal-sanctions.html ). For more information on the timeline of the agreement, see http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2015/07/21-comprehensive-timeline-iran-nuclear-deal , http://csis.org/ppp/index.htm, http://www.eeas.europa.eu/statements-eeas/docs/iran_agreement/annex_5_implementation_plan_en.pdf .
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 85.00%
No 15.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 227
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 829
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.543351
2.
-0.543151
3.
-0.538351
4.
-0.532946
5.
-0.528959

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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