HFC asks

Will a framework for an end to the Syrian conflict be agreed upon by 31 December 2017?

Started Nov 29, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2017 07:58PM UTC

Leaders of Russia, Turkey, and Iran are sponsoring a conference aimed at achieving a peaceful settlement of the Syrian civil war (NY Times, Al Arabiya, The Wire). The question will resolve as "yes" if a credible media source (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters) reports that Syria has agreed to a framework outlining the future structure of the state that includes BOTH the adoption of a new constitution AND holding elections under United Nations supervision. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 231
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 346
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000006
2.
-0.000006
3.
-0.000006
4.
-0.000006
5.
-0.000006

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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