HFC asks

Will a lethal confrontation involving national military forces of Saudi Arabia and Iran result in at least one fatality for either side in December 2017?

Started Nov 29, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2017 07:59PM UTC

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran over control of the Middle East have intensified. Some wonder if they will engage in military aggression against each other (NewsWeek, CNBC, NY Times). Question will resolve as "yes" if a credible media outlet (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters) reports at least one death (government or civilian) from an attack originating directly from either country. Deaths that result from a proxy war would not count. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 196
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 310
Average for questions older than 6 months: 583
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000188
2.
-0.000188
3.
-0.000188
4.
-0.000188
5.
-0.000188

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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