HFC asks
Will a lethal confrontation involving national military forces of Saudi Arabia and Iran result in at least one fatality for either side in December 2017?
Started
Nov 29, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2017 07:59PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2017 07:59PM UTC
Challenges
Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran over control of the Middle East have intensified. Some wonder if they will engage in military aggression against each other (NewsWeek, CNBC, NY Times). Question will resolve as "yes" if a credible media outlet (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters) reports at least one death (government or civilian) from an attack originating directly from either country. Deaths that result from a proxy war would not count.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 1.00% | |
No | 99.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 196 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 310 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 583 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |