HFC asks

Will the location of the missing Argentinian submarine be determined before 8 December 2017?

Started Nov 29, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 08, 2017 04:59AM UTC
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On November 23, 2017, the Argentinian Navy confirmed that its missing submarine, the San Juan, had experienced an explosion near the location of its last contact. (LA Times, Reuters) Question will resolve as "yes" if (a) credible media report that the ship or some remains of the ship have been located OR (b) there is an announcement or confirmation by the Argentinian government that the ship or some remains of the ship have been located. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Resolution Notes

The submarine is still missing.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 102
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 162
Average for questions older than 6 months: 583
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.1057
2.
-0.103825
3.
-0.097575
4.
-0.08445
5.
-0.000075

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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