HFC asks

Will Iran launch a medium, intermediate, or intercontinental range ballistic missile or a satellite between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017?

Started Nov 29, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 29, 2017 04:59AM UTC

The Trump administration declined to certify the Iranian nuclear deal, citing concerns about Iran's missile program (The Atlantic, Reuters). Examples of previous launches include the September 2017 and March 2016 ballistic missile tests (CNN, BBC) and the July 2017 satellite launch (Reuters). For more information on ballistic missiles of various ranges see Arms Control. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Iran did not launch a medium, intermediate, or intercontinental range ballistic missile or a satellite between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 29 December 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 124
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 216
Average for questions older than 6 months: 583
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.0043
2.
-0.004133
3.
-0.004127
4.
-0.002703
5.
-0.002703

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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