HFC asks

Between 6 December and 31 December 2017, will there be an attack on the drone base near Agadez, Niger?

Started Dec 06, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2017 07:59PM UTC

There are concerns that the U.S. drone base near Agadez, Niger may draw the attention of violent extremists (Washington Post). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 239
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 334
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000128
2.
-0.000128
3.
-0.000128
4.
-0.000128
5.
-0.000128

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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