The Economist asks

What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 1 October 2018?

Started Jan 10, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 29, 2018 06:59AM UTC

Outcome will be determined by the daily closing spot price for wholesale Brent crude oil reported by the Energy Information Administration. Experts are projecting slight increases in 2018 (Energy Information Administration, Reuters, The Economist). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "More than $80 per barrel" with an end date of 1 October 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $50 per barrel 0%
Between $50 and $60 per barrel, inclusive 0%
More than $60 but less than $70 per barrel 13%
Between $70 and $80 per barrel, inclusive 58%
More than $80 per barrel 29%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 728
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 2818
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.706
2.
-0.696
3.
-0.689
4.
-0.688
5.
-0.681

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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