The CFA Society Los Angeles asks

As of 31 January 2018, what percent of funds of the Vanguard 500 Index Fund will be holdings of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, or Alphabet?

Started Jan 17, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC

Outcome will be determined by summing the % of funds from Apple Inc. (AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Facebook Inc. Class A (FB), Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG), and Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) on Vanguard's 500 Index Fund's Investor Share Page. Question will be suspended on 31 January 2018 and resolved when the relevant data is released. Because the Vanguard 500 Index Fund tracks the S&P500, the percent of the funds for each company provides an indication of that company's global market share (Investopedia). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
As of 31 January 2018, 13.74% percent of funds of the Vanguard 500 Index Fund were holdings of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, or Alphabet. This question closed as "c) More than 13.00% but less than 14.00%" with an end date of 31 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 12.00% 0%
Between 12.00% and 13.00%, inclusive 0%
More than 13.00% but less than 14.00% 100%
Between 14.00% and 15.00%, inclusive 0%
More than 15.00% 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 78
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 126
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.008307
2.
-0.008136
3.
-0.00795
4.
-0.007507
5.
-0.007507

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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