Started Feb 14, 2018 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC (9 days ago)

The Monkey Cage asks

Which party will hold a majority in the US Senate after the 2018 midterm elections?

Midterm elections are scheduled for 6 November 2018 (NY Times, The Washington Post, Ballotpedia). Independents will be counted for the party with which they caucus or conference. The President of the Senate will not count as a senator for the seat count, but will determine the majority party in the case that both parties hold 50 seats.

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Name Probability
Democratic Party, with 53 senators or more 0%
Democratic Party, with less than 53 senators 18%
Republican party, with less than 53 senators 66%
Republican Party, with 53 senators or more 16%

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