The Monkey Cage asks
Which party will hold a majority in the US Senate after the 2018 midterm elections?
Started
Feb 14, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC
Midterm elections are scheduled for 6 November 2018 (NY Times, The Washington Post, Ballotpedia). Independents will be counted for the party with which they caucus or conference. The President of the Senate will not count as a senator for the seat count, but will determine the majority party in the case that both parties hold 50 seats.
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This question closed as "The Republican Party with 53 senators or more" with an end date of 6 November 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
This question closed as "The Republican Party with 53 senators or more" with an end date of 6 November 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Democratic Party, with 53 senators or more | 0% | |
Democratic Party, with less than 53 senators | 18% | |
Republican party, with less than 53 senators | 66% | |
Republican Party, with 53 senators or more | 16% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 349 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 219 | |
Number of Forecasts | 898 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 613 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |