The Monkey Cage asks

Which party will hold a majority in the US Senate after the 2018 midterm elections?

Started Feb 14, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC

Midterm elections are scheduled for 6 November 2018 (NY Times, The Washington Post, Ballotpedia). Independents will be counted for the party with which they caucus or conference. The President of the Senate will not count as a senator for the seat count, but will determine the majority party in the case that both parties hold 50 seats. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "The Republican Party with 53 senators or more" with an end date of 6 November 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Democratic Party, with 53 senators or more 0%
Democratic Party, with less than 53 senators 18%
Republican party, with less than 53 senators 66%
Republican Party, with 53 senators or more 16%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 349
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 898
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.64227
2.
-0.623187
3.
-0.606004
4.
-0.599766
5.
-0.599032

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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