Started Feb 14, 2018 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC (9 days ago)

The Monkey Cage asks

Which party will hold a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm elections?

Midterm elections are scheduled for 6 November 2018 (NY Times, Washington Post). Independents will be counted for the party with which they caucus or conference.

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Name Probability
Democratic Party, with 230 or more representatives 23%
Democratic Party, with less than 230 representatives 55%
Republican Party, with less than 230 representatives 22%
Republican Party, with 230 or more representatives 0%

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