The Monkey Cage asks
Which party will hold a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm elections?
Started
Feb 14, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC
Midterm elections are scheduled for 6 November 2018 (NY Times, Washington Post). Independents will be counted for the party with which they caucus or conference.
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This question closed as "Democratic Party, with 230 or more representatives on 6 November" with an end date of 6 November 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
This question closed as "Democratic Party, with 230 or more representatives on 6 November" with an end date of 6 November 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party, with 230 or more representatives | 23% | |
| Democratic Party, with less than 230 representatives | 55% | |
| Republican Party, with less than 230 representatives | 22% | |
| Republican Party, with 230 or more representatives | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 419 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 219 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1106 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 613 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
