The Monkey Cage asks

Which party will hold a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm elections?

Started Feb 14, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2018 07:59AM UTC

Midterm elections are scheduled for 6 November 2018 (NY Times, Washington Post). Independents will be counted for the party with which they caucus or conference. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "Democratic Party, with 230 or more representatives on 6 November" with an end date of 6 November 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Democratic Party, with 230 or more representatives 23%
Democratic Party, with less than 230 representatives 55%
Republican Party, with less than 230 representatives 22%
Republican Party, with 230 or more representatives 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 419
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 1106
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.623324
2.
-0.623129
3.
-0.615657
4.
-0.603205
5.
-0.59328

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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