The Economist asks

Before 1 October 2018, will a referendum repealing or amending Ireland's 'right-to-life' Eighth Amendment pass?

Started Mar 07, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 25, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Challenges

There is growing discussion regarding the repeal of Ireland's Eighth Amendment, which bans most abortions (Irish Statute Book, Irish Times). Prior to the referendum, the government will publish a bill outlining the exact text of the referendum (Irish Times, BBC). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
A referendum repealing or amending Ireland's 'right-to-life' Eighth Amendment passed. This question closed as "Yes" with an end date of 25 May 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 90.00%
No 10.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 172
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 338
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.107
4.
-0.107
5.
-0.106

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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