The Monkey Cage asks

Which party will win Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election?

Started Apr 04, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 07, 2018 05:00PM UTC

The special election will take place on 7 August 2018, with primary elections occurring in May (Roll Call, CNBC, Ballotpedia). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Troy Balderson (Republican) won Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election. This question closed as "Republican Party" with an end date of 7 August 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Republican Party 83%
Democratic Party 17%
Other 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 103
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 246
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.24492
2.
-0.24492
3.
-0.24492
4.
-0.24408
5.
-0.24408

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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