Started Apr 18, 2018 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

The Mack Institute asks

Between 1 July 2017 and 1 July 2018, how many Model 3 cars will Tesla deliver to customers?

Although production of Tesla's Model 3s have ramped up, deliveries are still well below the targets Tesla set last summer (Auto Blog, Wired, Teslarati). See (GJOpen) for forecasts on deliveries for the same time period above 50,000.

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Name Probability
29,000 or less 0%
More than 29,000 but less than 36,000 6%
Between 36,000 and 43,000, inclusive 53%
More than 43,000 but less than 50,000 41%
50,000 or more 1%

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