The Mack Institute asks

Between 1 July 2017 and 1 July 2018, how many Model 3 cars will Tesla deliver to customers?

Started Apr 18, 2018 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

Although production of Tesla's Model 3s have ramped up, deliveries are still well below the targets Tesla set last summer (Auto Blog, Wired, Teslarati). See (GJOpen) for forecasts on deliveries for the same time period above 50,000. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "29,000 or less" with an end date of 1 July 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
29,000 or less 0%
More than 29,000 but less than 36,000 6%
Between 36,000 and 43,000, inclusive 94%
More than 43,000 but less than 50,000 0%
50,000 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 107
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 391
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.764
3.
-0.628
4.
-0.599
5.
-0.545

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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